Off-plan payments due in Q1 2030

• This is a schedule projection, not a forecast. It models every unit record we hold as bought on the valuation date at its listed price on the plan the developer publishes. Real off-plan absorption is partial and staggered, so no quarter here will be collected in full.
• It counts only units in this corpus, and it weights a project by how many priced unit records were published for it. Those records are a sample of each building inventory, and the sampling rate is not uniform: one tower with three thousand listed units outweighs eighty small projects. Every AED figure is therefore a floor on the market and a distorted share of it, which is why every group row names the single project driving its heaviest quarter and repeats the same concentration on a one-median-unit-per-project basis where a scrape cannot skew it.
• Booking money is placed on the valuation date by construction of the model. Most of this book launched months or years ago and collected its reservation money then, at a date this corpus does not hold. Read the booking band as money due on reservation, never as bookings expected this quarter.
• Construction instalments are spread evenly across the remaining months to handover, and because the model buys on the valuation date, a project completing in six months has its whole construction schedule compressed into those six months. In reality most of that money was collected across the build, at dates this corpus does not hold. The first year of the calendar is therefore overstated against the far end, and the near bars read as what a buyer entering today would owe, not as what the market will pay. Real schedules are also tied to build milestones that are never published in advance and that slip, so an even spread is a model rather than a schedule.
• Handover dates are the developer own targets scraped from portals. They move, and they move later far more often than earlier. Every quarter on this calendar inherits that.
• Nothing here is discounted for the time value of money. A dirham due in 2031 is counted as a dirham. The discounted reading of the same schedules is the effective price.

Counted over 1,660 of 2,924 tracked off-plan projects, 56.8 percent. The rest are excluded for a stated reason: 661 publish no payment plan that sums, 222 carry a handover date that has already passed or is missing, and 381 carry no priced unit record to value. The calendar runs 2026 Q3 to 2032 Q2 and 99.6 percent of the modelled obligation lands inside it; the AED 826.1M that does not is post-handover tail money running past the horizon. Method and rollback are in the methodology. Not investment advice.